Four scenarios for the US after the midterms

Democrats use hearings, subpoenas, budget leverage and messaging bills; Trump relies on executive authority, vetoes and selective tariff or sanctions tools. Reversals are partial and slow.

Implication: Maintain US exposure; price in volatility premiums, contract flexibility and board-level scenario planning.

• +10ppDemocrats win House and Senate; divided government confirmed
• +2ppMidwest aluminium premium remains near record; PPI +48.5% since Feb 2025
• +3ppBAAJA permitting bill: Senate vote Nov 9, odds cut from 40% to 25%

Congressional and public pressure reduces the Iran-war risk premium, narrows some tariff actions and produces a narrower permitting package or administrative improvements.

Implication: Supports volume growth, margin recovery and faster customer capex. Shift to expansionary commercial stance.

• +5ppDemocratic leaders move to claw back Section 232/301 tariff authority
• +4ppCongress signals appropriations leverage to force Iran de-escalation
• -3ppBAAJA permitting bill: Senate vote Nov 9, odds cut from 40% to 25%

The White House doubles down on executive tariffs, sanctions or symbolic industrial actions; Congress responds with deeper investigations and funding fights. Shutdown risk rises.

Implication: Defensive inventory policy, trade rerouting, legal review of counterparties, tighter executive oversight of US decisions.

• +3ppDemocratic leaders move to claw back Section 232/301 tariff authority
• -2ppCongress signals appropriations leverage to force Iran de-escalation
• +2ppOversight committees prepare probes into Russian diesel and critical-mineral stakes
• +3ppFederal funding runs out December 11 — shutdown risk in lame duck

Meaningful tariff unwind, reliable permitting reform and stable industrial-policy support through bipartisan compromise.

Implication: Good to model, not good to assume. Upside scenario rather than planning baseline.

• -2ppDemocrats win House and Senate; divided government confirmed
• -1ppAlaska LNG ($54.4bn) and allied power investments may be delayed