Decisions & Actions

Decision log

Every decision traces back to signals and scenarios, has one accountable owner and tracked actions.

d-01 · owner CFO · due 20 Nov 2026 · value €165m EBIT range

Adopt 4-scenario US planning frame for 2027 budget

Divided government widens outcome range; budget must carry base/upside/downside ranges.

Adopt 4-scenario frameBase case + sensitivity onlyDefer to Q1
↳ Democrats win House and Senate; divided government confirmed
Actions · 30%
Build scenario P&L model for US BU
Brief board audit & risk committee
d-02 · owner Sales Director · due 28 Nov 2026 · value €14–41m protected

Introduce tariff-adjustment clauses in 2027 US contracts

Possible Section 232 carve-outs or escalation; contracts must share tariff risk.

Quarterly tariff clausePass-through indexFixed price + premium
↳ Democratic leaders move to claw back Section 232/301 tariff authority↳ Midwest aluminium premium remains near record; PPI +48.5% since Feb 2025
Actions · 58%
Draft tariff clause with Legal
Customer pass-through analysis top-25 accounts
d-03 · owner CFO · due 15 Nov 2026 · value €11m volatility

Extend US energy & diesel hedge cover to 70% for H1 2027

Iran de-escalation uncertain; state utility shifts in Texas/Georgia add power-price risk.

70% cover50% cover + collarsStay at 40%
↳ Congress signals appropriations leverage to force Iran de-escalation↳ Democrats win Georgia PSC; first Democrat on Texas Railroad Commission since 1990
Actions · 20%
Obtain treasury committee approval for hedge
d-04 · owner COO · due 12 Nov 2026 · value €9m EBITDA timing

Go / hold on Recycling Phase 2 interconnection deposit

Outcome of Nov 9 BAAJA vote drives interconnection timing.

Pay deposit nowHold until after voteRe-site to Georgia
↳ BAAJA permitting bill: Senate vote Nov 9, odds cut from 40% to 25%
Actions · 0%
Prepare go/hold memo after Nov 9 vote
d-05 · owner CRO · due 25 Nov 2026 · value Reputational

Pre-emptive review of counterparties exposed to oversight probes

Russian-origin diesel and critical-mineral scrutiny.

Full legal reviewTargeted review top-20Monitor only
↳ Oversight committees prepare probes into Russian diesel and critical-mineral stakes
Actions · 78%
Screen top-20 suppliers against probe topics
Prepare holding statement for media
d-06 · owner COO · due 01 Dec 2026 · value €6m

Shutdown contingency: accelerate customs & permit filings

Funding lapses Dec 11; three permits and one grant milestone at risk.

File early + bonded storageAccept delay risk
↳ Federal funding runs out December 11 — shutdown risk in lame duck
Actions · 15%
File early for 3 federal permits
Arrange bonded storage at Houston
d-07 · owner CEO · due 10 Dec 2026 · value €120m revenue

Re-prioritize LNG/power project pipeline

Allied investment commitments may slip; pipeline needs probability re-weighting.

Re-weight & redeploy salesHold current allocation
↳ Alaska LNG ($54.4bn) and allied power investments may be delayed
Actions · 0%