Executive Overview · viewing as CEO — Elena Varga
USA after the midterms: divided government, higher volatility
Democrats control both chambers; the White House keeps veto power and executive tariff tools. Expect more friction, investigations and uneven implementation — not a clean policy reset.
External developmentsSignificant signalsBusiness exposureScenario assessmentDecisionsOwnersActionsOutcome monitoring
Overall US external risk
High · 4.1/5
▲ 0.6 since Nov 3
Prob-weighted EBIT vs plan
−€8m
2027 US BU
EBITDA exposed to US policy
€144m
14 tagged exposures
Decisions open
5
1 action blocked
What has materially changed
Political monitor →11-0411-0511-0511-0511-0511-03
Democrats win House and Senate; divided government confirmed
bothstrategicPolitical structure
Democratic leaders move to claw back Section 232/301 tariff authority
opportunitymediumTrade & tariffs
BAAJA permitting bill: Senate vote Nov 9, odds cut from 40% to 25%
opportunityimmediatePermitting
Oversight committees prepare probes into Russian diesel and critical-mineral stakes
riskmediumInvestigations
Alaska LNG ($54.4bn) and allied power investments may be delayed
riskstrategicEnergy & Iran
Midwest aluminium premium remains near record; PPI +48.5% since Feb 2025
bothimmediateMarkets
Scenarios developing
Adjust →−€18m
+€42m
−€71m
+€96m
Base caseUpsideDownsideTail upside
High-noise gridlock
50%
Partial normalization
25%
Presidential escalation
20%
Broad trade reset
5%
Decisions requiring management attention
Decision log →Go / hold on Recycling Phase 2 interconnection depositCOO
Due 12 Nov 2026 · €9m EBITDA timing · Pending
Extend US energy & diesel hedge cover to 70% for H1 2027CFO
Due 15 Nov 2026 · €11m volatility · Pending
Adopt 4-scenario US planning frame for 2027 budgetCFO
Due 20 Nov 2026 · €165m EBIT range · In review
Introduce tariff-adjustment clauses in 2027 US contractsSales Director
Due 28 Nov 2026 · €14–41m protected · Pending
Shutdown contingency: accelerate customs & permit filingsCOO
Due 01 Dec 2026 · €6m · In review
Financial & strategic exposure
Aluminium semis & alloys
€41m
Corpus Christi smelter
€22m
Automotive OEM & Tier-1
€17m
LNG & power project pipeline
€12m
Gulf Coast energy & diesel
€11m
Recycling expansion (Phase 2)
€9m
Canada-routed supply (Québec alloy)
€8m