Permitting · 05 Nov 2026 · Senate calendar, analyst estimates
BAAJA permitting bill: Senate vote Nov 9, odds cut from 40% to 25%
Bill would reshape timelines for transmission, generation and mining; modelling shows ~3x transmission buildout and 3.5–7% power-system savings.
opportunityimmediateconf. 75%
1 · What happened — evidence
- ▸Cloture vote scheduled Nov 9
- ▸Two swing senators undecided
- ▸Probability estimate revised post-election
2 · Why it matters to us
Determines interconnection timing for Corpus Christi recycling expansion and power cost outlook for Texas site.
Key question · Does it delay a permit, capex decision or customer project?
3 · Financial / operational impact
Interconnection delay of 12 months defers ~€9m EBITDA from recycling project.
Route to
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4 · Affected exposures
5 · Scenario effects
6 · Decisions & actions
Go / hold on Recycling Phase 2 interconnection deposit
COO · due 12 Nov 2026 · Pending
Prepare go/hold memo after Nov 9 vote0%